Since I started using Hulu and more recently learned about the open-source video aggregation software Miro and the video sharing plugin Kaltura, it seemed to me that Tivo’s days were numbered. Evidently I’m not the only one.

In her Halloween post on the Wired Blog Network, Meghan Keane observes “the future of the company which defined the DVR is likely to depend on dumping the magic box altogether,” and reports that Daniel Taylor, an analyst at Yankee Group, says that the “TV-Killer” may find itself facing irrelevance long before television networks have to face up to the problem:

DVR and video on demand are struggling for relevance today. The challenge that Tivo faces — the challenge that any device-based service faces — is how they’re going to address user behavior. For every one person who plans ahead to tape shows they’ll miss, there are nine other that want to go online now that they’ve missed it.

The key words “…the challenge that any device-based service faces” is spot-on. Old media and proprietary technologies are dying, while web media and open-source is ascendent. Adapt, as Tivo is trying to by transforming itself into a web video offering, or become irrelevant. Shift happens.